15 must-read fantasy football stats for Week 6 Published: Oct 14, 2016 at 01:20 PM NFL Network Analytics Expert 1) is averaging 20.2 carries per game and 3.7 yards per rush, along with 2.8 receptions per game with 5.9 yards per reception. The offense overall averages 16.4 points per game (tied-31st), 4.66 yards per play (31st), while scoring six touchdowns on 62 drives for a 9.7 percent touchdown rate (32nd). However, since head coach Bill O'Brien took over play-calling duties in Week 4, their points per game and yards per play are both trending up (and remember they faced the and that lockdown defense last week). The ' defense allows 109.6 rushing yards per game (18th), 410.6 total yards per game (30th) and 29.6 points per game (tied-30th). I know that 's volume was down last game (only eight rushes and one reception) but that was the and this is the . My projections rank and in the top 10 at their respective positions ( in the top seven), and also has a projection that exceeds expectations (top-30 WR for me). Since my math has the edging out the in a game with a normal amount of total points, I wouldn't play all my in say, Perfect Challenge formats. 2) has been targeted 10-plus times in every game this season Last week, both Hilton and were on this streak, and this week Hilton stands alone. If you look at his home and away splits so far, the two away games (Jacksonville and Denver) stand out as far le s than his averages. So far this season in home games he averages 141.3 receiving yards with two scores versus 41.5 receiving yards with one score in away games. He's playing on the road this week against the defense so ... is a top-12 wide receiver this week. In the past two games, the ' defense (without J.J. Watt) has allowed an average of 25.5 points per game (up from 17.7 in first three games), 335.5 total yards per game (up from 277) and 225.5 pa sing yards per game (up from 151.3). They've also reduced their sack average from 3.3 to 1.5 per game. 3) 's pa ser rating was 153.3 on pa s attempts of 20-plus air yards to in Weeks 1-4. He was 5-of-7 for 201 yards and a touchdown in those four games (which included the Broncos). Last week against the , Dalton had only a 39.6 pa ser rating on two deep attempts to Green neither of which were caught. Our NFL Next Gen Stats track this metric, and the defense allows only a 56.6 pa ser rating against deep pa ses, which is Bill Ranford Jersey below the NFL average of 79.8. There is a good chance the will be playing from behind, po sibly even very behind. Green's 52 targets lead the team and rank sixth in the NFL. Those deep catches are likely something we will see this week. I say catches (and not targets) because based on a longer history than just last game he's almost coverage-proof. With 's out, there's a good chance Green's targets are above his 10.4 per game average. Also, I know saw 11 targets and caught eight of them for 68 yards and two touchdowns against the last week, but if you're looking for a Perfect Challenge value I would stick to the potential upside from Green here. Green has the highest ceiling for any wide receiver this week and is in the top-seven in my median projections for his position. 4) Last week Gronk lined up in the slot for 21 plays (19 percent) where he caught three pa ses on five targets for 30 yards He lined up tight on 78 plays (70 percent) where he caught two pa ses on the three targets that came his way for 56 yards. The ' defense has allowed 13.9 yards per reception (fifth-most in the NFL) to pa s-catchers out of the slot. They're also tied with the in giving up the most touchdowns out of the tight end alignment (three). Remember above when I told you that the Pats will likely be playing with a lead? That limits the upside for and just a bit. Gronk is my TE2 and Bennett is my TE8. is closer to a top-20 wide receiver this week. 5) is averaging three receptions per game and caught five pa ses in Seattle's Week 4 game against the . The ' defense has allowed 45 receptions on 51 targets to running backs (second-most in the NFL) for a total of 357 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns (both third-most in the NFL). The also allow 98.6 rushing yards per game (15th). Michael is a top option in both standard scoring and PPR formats. is my No. 5 quarterback for the week. 6) Last year, had a 70.2 percent completion rate on pa ses intended for , this year it's tracking at 54.1 percent. Maclin earned 1,088 yards and eight touchdowns last season on pa ses from Smith, while this year those numbers are only 244 yards and one. The are pa sing on a league-high 68.6 percent of plays but only averaging 248.3 pa sing yards per game (15th) and 5.9 yards per pa s play (28th). The ' defense allows 452.6 yards per game Ben Scrivens Jersey (32nd), with 330.6 coming through the air (also 32nd). The have already given up over 1,650 yards through the air to opposing offenses. is my No. 12 wide receiver with top-five upside, and is my No. 3 tight end with the highest ceiling at his position for the week. Maclin has seen the most targets (averages 9.25 per game) and Kelce leads the team in receptions (22). I asked Marshall Faulk how the might attack the defense, he described how they are very susceptible to tight ends. In other words, Marshall thinks we'll see Kelce have the bigger day. Also, should be impactful in this game, and I have him slated for the majority of the work on the ground (with pa s-catching upside). 7) The defense allows an average of 302.4 pa sing yards per game (31st). It follows that the quarterbacks they've faced so far this season have all ended up with a pa ser rating of over 100 against them. They've allowed the second-most plays of over 40 yards in the air (eight) so far this season, giving up at least one in each game. They have, however, kept rushing yards in check, allowing the second-fewest in the NFL per game (68.4). is my No. 7 quarterback option this week in all formats of fantasy play. and both should benefit from this game script, where the should have one of the highest point totals on the week. Both are in the top-five at their positions, though I will say Johnson's projection isn't as insanely good as it has been in past weeks given the ' ability to stop the run. That being said, considering Johnson's pa s-catching upside and a favorable script, I still think he ends up near the top of the running back heap. I also have slated to over perform our expectations of him, those deep pa ses and his recent uptick in targets (don't look at the Stanton game) all suggest that we could see tons of upside from him. 8) Arizona's defense has 12 takeaways this season, tied for first in the league. In each of their last three games, they've held opposing offenses to fewer than 300 total yards. They also have Mark Messier Jersey 18 sacks on the year, third-most in the league. 's completion percentage currently sits at 57.8 percent (33rd in the league) while his 10 interceptions and 64.7 pa ser rating both rank last. When targeting , Fitzpatrick is 24-of-54 with two touchdowns and four interceptions and a pa ser rating of 48.6. With going on IR, both Marshall and will continue to see an uptick in targets. Opportunity is always a good thing even against the . Bottom line, play Marshall if you have him, just temper expectations. 9) 's 516 receiving yards rank fourth in the NFL but first among tight ends. Detroit's paces the league with 519 receiving yards, then with 518 and with 517. Three yards separate Olsen from the most receiving yards in the league. He has at least five receptions and 60 yards in each game this season. The allow the second-most yards per game (422.8) and rank 28th in receiving yards allowed per game (301.3). In what should be a high-scoring game for both teams, Olsen has one of my top-three median projections with the top tight-end ceiling. is my top quarterback this week, as well. All of this a sumes that Cam is cleared from the concu sion protocol, of course. Also, 's return helps the offense overall and Stewart is fully playable this week. 10) The defense is allowing an average of 7.7 more points per game than they did in 2015. Looking at total yards per Leon Draisaitl Jersey game, the are allowing 341.2 this year compared to 322.9 last year. The metric that really drives this home for me is that the are allowing opposing quarterbacks a 93.5 pa ser rating (20th) compared to 73.5 (first) last year. I could add in a bunch of information about the Saint's offense like how they are fourth in the league in points per game, second in pa sing yards per game and tied for second in touchdowns but basically what you can see and feel when you watch this team is that the offense keeps them in games despite their defense giving up lots of yards and points. It's po sible that this at game could have even more points that its projected total, which happens to be the highest of the week. is my No. 6 quarterback this week with the highest ceiling. Navigating the pa s-catchers breaks down like this for me: out of the slot has almost the same median projection as - the Carolina secondary hasn't been the same this year (see pa ser rating above). Snead has a bit more upside in my model because his slot production prior to his toe injury was pacing the league, which maps to the vulnerable safeties. also pops up as a value option with the eighth-most receiving yards projected at the tight end position in my model. 11) averages 105 rushing yrads per game this season (second in the NFL), while the allow a league-worst 150.8 rushing yards per game. Bell has more than 150 scrimmage yard in both games he's played so far this season and has over 100 in 11 of his past 14 games. Fun trivia question from our awesome research team. Who has averaged more scrimmage yards per game than Bell's 121.6? In the past 30 years, that answer would be no one. On the defensive side of the ball, the have the worst rushing margin in the NFL. Opponents have outgained the by 392 yards on the ground. is my No. 1 running back with a monster ceiling. No matter the format of fantasy, he's the best pick of the week in any position in terms of potential. is my QB2 for the week while is my WR1, but doesn't have the highest ceiling due to a potential lopsided score favoring the road team (and thus more running plays toward the end of the game). Keep an eye on ' injured hand and the return of and manage your expectations for Coates on Sunday morning. 12) has 34 receptions so far this season (tied for fourth-most in the NFL) Pittsburgh's defense allows an average of 379 total yards per game (25th) with all but 77 coming in the air (302 pa sing yards per game allowed, 30th). Landry's 48 targets are 23 more than the next closest receiver (DeVante Parker) and he's had 10 or more targets in all but one game so far this season. Landry cracks my top 10 wide receivers this week primarily due to his volume and the game script likely calling for the to be playing from behind. The risk here lies primarily in 's ability to get him the ball. Tannehill has been sacked 17 times (second-most in the league) while the defense has seven sacks and allows an average of 13.5 points per game in their last two contest. The ' offense has 11 giveaways (tied for fifth-most), nine of which are attributed to Tannehill. In other words, if you need a defense this week, perhaps consider the . 13) averages 5.3 yards per carry and has already rushed for 447 yards this season (fourth in the NFL). McCoy has 100-plus scrimmage yards in three straight games and 10 of his past 13 games. Think of five as the magic number for yards per carry. Backs who average five or more yards per carry (and see a requisite number of touches) are almost always ones to consider for fantasy. In the past three games his yards per carry average has surged to 6.1. The defense has allowed 146.8 rushing yards per game (second-most). In Weeks 2-5 they surrendered over 100 rushing yards to No. 1 running backs and five touchdowns. As far as story-telling goes, I love a great revenge narrative ... but when it comes to math I don't have an input for that - but this week it doesn't matter because they are one in the same. McCoy is a top-10 back and could be a big help in the short pa sing game as well. 14) is averaging 5.8 yards per carry and 6.6 scrimmage yards per touch. Howard is averaging 147.5 scrimmage yards per game this season. Jacksonville's defense has improved, only allowing 304.5 yards per game (seventh-fewest), but 105.8 of those yards are coming on the ground. is my RB12 on the week. has led the league with 1,016 pa sing yards over the last three weeks and has two touchdowns in each game as well. His 71.4 completion percentage is also currently best in the NFL. Despite all that, I don't think this is the defense to play Hoyer against. Laurent Brossoit Jersey 15) has lined up in the slot on 120 plays (50 percent), where he has caught 12 of his 18 targets for 172 yards (14.3 yards per catch), and scored two touchdowns. Washington's has only lined up in the slot on 34 plays so far this season. This one is short and sweet. has cracked my top 14 wide receivers this week. This article has been reproduced in a new format and may be mi sing content or contain faulty links. Please use the Contact Us link in our site footer to report an i sue.